McKinsey's own survey: predicted AI layoffs keep outrunning the actual ones

McKinsey published its 2026 State of AI survey on August 25, 2026: 1,719 respondents across 97 nations, fielded May 4 through June 8, 2026. Its headline workforce finding runs against the year's layoff narrative. Only 14% of respondents from organizations using AI say it contributed to a decline in their organization's total workforce over the past year. In the 2025 edition of the same survey, 32% had predicted a decline over that period. Expectations have climbed again: 39% now expect AI-driven headcount declines in the coming year, versus 43% expecting little or no change. That sets up the same gap between expectation and outcome.

The financial picture is flat too. 37% of respondents attribute at least some EBIT impact to AI, roughly unchanged from a year earlier, and only 6% qualify as what McKinsey calls "AI high performers," attributing at least 5% of EBIT to AI and describing that impact as significant. Eighty percent of individual respondents say AI has improved their own productivity. The Register's Brandon Vigliarolo highlighted that gap between individual and organizational impact, quoting McKinsey's own framing: "conviction in AI is growing faster than the immediate financial returns."

The measurement gap

McKinsey's report page returned a server error on repeated attempts, so the figures above come from The Register's bylined reporting, where they appear consistently. The finding restates Merit AC's thesis from a consultancy surveying 1,719 executives: belief about what AI is doing to headcount and the bottom line is running well ahead of what companies can attribute to it. Closing that gap takes measurement at the level of your own spend and output.